Cubs and Theriot Playing Hardball

By Garrett Monaghan

With Carlos Marmol's agreeing to a $2.125 million contract on Thursday the Cubs now only have one remaining arbitration-eligible player, shortstop Ryan Theriot. Theriot made $500,000 last year, and is asking for $3.4 million, with the Cubs offering $2.6 million. At latest report, the two sides are not close to reaching an agreement, and are expected to go to arbitration.

The Cubs have prided themselves on not going to arbitration with any player since Mark Grace in 1993, and with good reason. The arbitration process can generate some pretty unpleasant feelings between a player and his club, as the player basically has to sit and listen to arguments why he shouldn't get paid. Why then have the Cubs decided to play hardball with their starting shortstop?

If the Cubs don't think Theriot's worth the money, even for a year, they're sadly mistaken. Theriot posted a WAR (Wins Above Replacement) of 2.8 last year, comparable to Orlando Hudson's 2.9. Hudson just signed a one-year deal with the Twins for $5 million, and it wouldn't be totally unreasonable for Theriot to be looking for something in the same range. Using Fangraphs.com's 'Dollars' rating, which translates WAR into a monetary measure of a player's value, Theriot was worth approximately $12.7 million last year and $14.1 million the year before. I'm obviously not suggesting that Theriot could (or should) get that kind of money, merely that the Cubs have gotten excellent value out of The Riot the last couple of seasons, and would still be getting an excellent value out of him with a decent raise.

If the Cubs are expecting uber-prospect-du-jour Starlin Castro to take Theriot's job during the season and don't want to be paying Theriot good money to set on the bench or play second; they're seriously deluding themselves. Yes, Castro appears to be very good, particularly for his age, but there aren't many teams in baseball worse at evaluating and developing positional talent than the Cubs; and any team that counts that heavily on a 20-year old shortstop who hasn't played more than half a season at AA is courting trouble. Castro could turn out to be great, and I can understand the Cubs' not wanting to sign Theriot to a long-term deal because of him, but it's too early to go burning bridges without having a better feel for how Castro is going to turn out.

The bottom line here is that the Cubs are making a mistake by letting their negotiations with Theriot go to arbitration. Whether he's playing short or second base in 2011; Theriot's a solid player, a fan favorite, and apparently a good guy to have in the clubhouse. Given Hendry's history of handing out bloated contracts to aging, talentless bozos (Soriano, Fukudome) and basket cases (Bradley) it'd be nice to see the Cubs pony up the money for one of the few nice surprises to come out of their minor league system in the last decade. Instead of fighting tooth and nail over $800,000, it'd show a lot of class on Hendry's part to give Theriot a pat on the back and a raise; particularly now that the Cubs are out from under the yoke of corporate ownership. Show a kinder, gentler, smarter side for once guys. Give the man a raise!

Projections and Predictions

By Garrett Monaghan

Since my last post the Cubs went out and added a couple more bench players, signing outfielder Xavier Nady to a one-year deal, and infielder Chad Tracy to a minor league contract. While I'm normally not a big fan of Jim Hendry's free agent signings, this isn't a bad pair of deals.

Nady, 32, isn't a bad option as a right-handed bat off the bench; particularly given that his contract maxes out at around $5.5 million assuming he meets all his incentives. He's coming off his second career Tommy John surgery, but passed a physical this week so it's safe to assume he's fairly healthy. Nady had a career year in 2008, hitting .305/.357/.510 with the Pirates and Yankees; but don't expect him to come anywhere close to those numbers again with the Cubs given that he's coming off an injury year and won't be a regular starter. Nady hits for a fair bit of power, but doesn't walk much and is a poor defender everywhere except left field where he's average at best (which makes him outstanding compared to Alfonso Soriano.) Nady will be a perfectly adequate back up at the outfield corners and at first base, but he won't push for a starting job unless somebody gets hurt. His career .308/.383/.471 line against lefties should make him the first right-handed bat off the bench late in games.

Tracy, 29, is potentially a really interesting pickup. He had a couple very good seasons with Arizona back in 2005-2006, but has suffered through three consecutive uninspiring seasons since. A left-handed hitter who can play either infield corner reasonably well, Tracy's biggest problem is that he can't hit left-handed pitching to save his life. His lifetime .297/.358/.482 line against righties, on the other hand, could make him a really interesting backup and pinch hitter. Having a combination of Tracy and Jeff Baker available gives the Cubs a lot of insurance if/when Aramis Ramirez goes down for any length of time. Considering he didn't cost much, Tracy's potentially a great grab for the Cubs.

Neither of these guys should play huge roles for the Cubs this year, but they could be useful pieces of the puzzle and valuable contributors off the bench. Tracy's going to need to have a good Spring Training to make a crowded bench, but don't be too surprised if he makes it.

Baseball Prospectus came out late last week with their pre-season standings predictions, and I was startled (Ok, stunned) to see that they projected the Cubs to finish 77-85; in third place, four games behind the Reds.

Uh, really?

Admittedly, I don't think the Cubs have really improved much this off-season; but they haven't gotten that much worse, and the Reds haven't gotten that much better. The Reds will remain essentially the same team offensively, with the addition of Orlando Cabrera (no big gain) and the return of a healthy Jay Bruce. Bruce could help quite a bit, but he'll have to hit for better than a .220 average. If Aramis Ramirez stays healthy and Geovanny Soto finishes trading 40 pounds of fat for 40+ points in batting average, the Cubs should be a lot closer to their 2008 offensive form.

The Reds had a surprisingly good bullpen last year and should benefit greatly from the return of a healthy Edinson Volquez. That said, Aaron Harang, Micah Owings, and Homer Bailey got shelled worse than a German trench on the Somme last year; and I wouldn't expect any big returns from free agent signee Aroldis Chapman.

Why not?

One word: Dusty.

Baker worked his black magic on Volquez last year, and it's probably only a matter of time until his manages to screw up Jonny Cueto and Chapman this year. The Cubs may have lost Rich Harden and replaced him with a mobile batting practice machine in the prodigious form of Carlos Silva, but at least we don't have to worry about Baker destroying our younger pitchers anymore.

With Harden gone, the Cubs are going to need a much better season from Carlos Zambrano this year, and it appears they might get it. Zambrano showed up to the Cubs Convention in great shape, and his admission late last year that he's been lazy might be the first signs of some badly needed maturity on Big Z's part. I'm expecting good things out of Zambrano this year (not great things, good things) and it's not outside the realm of possibility that we'll see another decent arm or two help out from the minors.

Do the Reds have a lot of young talent? Absolutely. Do the Cubs have as much young talent? Probably not just yet. Can the Reds theoretically surprise us and sneak past the Cubs? Sure.

Do the Reds have a manager completely capable of destroying a pitching staff faster than the Black Plague? Yup.

So am I that worried about Cincinnati? Nope.

Weapon X?

by Mike Hansen

Xavier Nady will be added to the Cubs roster pending a physical. Nady, coming off of his second Tommy John ligament surgery, is a career .280 hitter with some pop. With weak performances from the outfield positions last season, Nady may be the fresh face that Chicago needs since they lead the National League with 97 wins in 2008.

Kosuke Fukudome is entering his third season with the Cubs and has shown that his keen eye is not enough for the left handers in the league and Nady will be the perfect complement. This has been done at what seems to be a bargain price at $3.3 million dollars with incentives at $2 million dollars based on games played. If Nady is healthy and can return to his form that he played in 2008, then Lou and the Cubs have solved a disappointing hole in their team from last season. Best of all, Nady's last name isn't Bradley.

Look for the Cubs to have a similar clubhouse chemistry that shot them to the top of the National League Central two years in a row. This was a quiet signing during a weak free agent class, but the Cubs have addressed a major area that they lacked all of last year. Ego and balance. Nady has the potential to be the secret weapon the Cubs need to continue the quest to break the curse.

Cubs Hire Mad Dog

By Garrett Monaghan

The best signing by the Cubs this off-season has arrived. The Cubs hired Greg Maddux today as a special adviser to GM Jim Hendry. Maddux will instruct both major leaguers and minor leaguers during Spring Training, and then act primarily as a scout during the regular season. According to an ESPN article, Maddux will also provide Hendry with some badly-needed analysis on the minor leagues, potential trades, and free agent signings.

Finally.

I'm trying not to get too excited, but it's possible that we've just seen the Cubs anoint Hendry's future successor. Maddux is one of the most intelligent men in the game, and his ability to analyze opposing hitters was nearly legendary during his playing career. If Maddux applies his considerable experience and intellect as effectively in the front office as he did on the field, he'll be an enormous asset to the team.

Hendry's clearly been in need of some help, and Maddux should give him some badly needed expertise. Of course, this isn't going to hurt the morale of Cubs fans either. A potential tag team of Maddux as GM and Sandberg as manager is a tantalizing fantasy that now seems possible.

Of course, I'm getting ahead of myself a bit. Maddux doesn't have any front office experience, and it's entirely possible he'll get bored with it or not be that spectacular. I'm not going to bet against the Mad Dog, though. This is great news for the Cubbies.